Visa and Walmart Poised to Shatter the Trillion-Dollar Ceiling — Here’s Why They’ll Beat the Next Wave of Tech Stocks
Visa and Walmart are leading a non-tech revolution toward $1 trillion valuations—here’s what’s powering their meteoric rise in 2025.
- Market cap needed: Visa requires ~$291B, Walmart ~$220B to reach $1T milestone
- U.S. e-commerce growth: Walmart’s online sales up 21% in Q1 2025 YoY
- Global market dominance: Visa processed $6.45T U.S. purchase volume in 2024
- Current $1T members: Only 11 public companies ever hit the milestone
The next trillion-dollar companies may come from a surprising source — and it’s not the tech world. As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq repeatedly break record highs, everyone’s asking: who’s next to join the exclusive $1 trillion club? Most expect an AI-fueled tech disruptor. But 2025 is about to crown two new kings from beyond Silicon Valley: Visa and Walmart.
Tech Dominance Fades: Why Non-Tech Companies Are Surging
For decades, tech titans like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia led the charge, smashing growth records and redefining industries. Major players such as Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla have all hit — or at times surpassed — the coveted $1 trillion mark.
But the landscape is changing. While companies like Palantir Technologies have caught fire, soaring nearly 1,900% since late 2022 and riding the AI revolution’s momentum, their ultra-high valuations are raising red flags among market strategists. Historically, when the hype cools, these high-flying stocks face sharp corrections — and no megacap has sustained such nosebleed price-to-sales ratios for long.
So if not tech, then who?
Q&A: Why Visa Is the Top Contender for the Next $1 Trillion Company
Q: What puts Visa ahead?
Visa sits at the financial world’s core, processing trillions in payment volume each year. In 2024, it facilitated $6.45 trillion in U.S. credit card purchases — almost double what competitors combined could muster. Even as economic slowdowns ebb and flow, Visa’s earnings and sales remain robust, with double-digit growth rates projected well into the next decade.
Q: Isn’t Visa affected by recessions?
Here’s the secret: Unlike banks and lenders, Visa faces little credit risk because it doesn’t actually lend money — it just moves it. That means when recessions hit, Visa bounces back faster than financial peers and isn’t weighed down by loan losses.
Q: Will Visa’s stock stay affordable?
Despite its long bull run, Visa’s forward P/E ratio of 29 is anchored right at its five-year average. With global expansion — especially in underbanked markets — and booming cross-border payments, analysts say Visa could hit $1 trillion as early as 2026.
How Is Walmart Defying Retail Odds (and Eyeing $1 Trillion)?
Walmart, already the world’s largest retailer, is rewriting the script for big-box stores.
What’s driving Walmart’s rapid ascent?
Walmart is thriving on two fronts. First, its core business of providing everyday essentials (think food, toiletries, and cleaning goods) attracts steady footfall, even in hard times. When recessions loom, customers seek value—boosting Walmart’s traffic as consumers look to stretch their dollars.
Second, Walmart is now dominating online. In Q1 2025, its U.S. e-commerce revenue exploded by 21%, and the company reported its first profitable quarter from U.S. digital sales. Ultra-popular Walmart+ subscriptions soared globally, growing nearly 15% compared to the previous year and adding high-margin income.
Does Walmart’s size really matter?
Absolutely. With its massive buying power, Walmart secures bulk discounts, undercuts rivals, and passes the savings directly to consumers. This moat is hard for local competitors to bridge.
What could hold Walmart back?
Its forward P/E stands at 33 — about one-third above its five-year norm. Some see this as a warning, but persistent U.S. policy uncertainty (especially regarding tariffs) could keep the demand for discount shopping, and therefore Walmart’s premium, high for the foreseeable future.
How the $1 Trillion Club Is Shaping Up in 2025
As of mid-2025, just 11 elite companies — from Microsoft to Saudi Aramco — have reached the trillion-dollar summit, with only one (Saudi Aramco) trading outside the U.S. Now, non-tech giants like Visa and Walmart stand ready to join their ranks. While high-profile AI and tech stocks steal headlines, the sustainable growth stories are quietly building among these foundational consumer and financial heavyweights.
Want to dive deeper? Check out Nasdaq for the latest on market valuations and Wall Street Journal‘s ongoing coverage of market trends.
How to Position Your Portfolio: 2025’s Winning Moves
– Watch for continued strength in consumer staples and payment processors.
– Keep an eye on international expansion — both Visa and Walmart are targeting global growth.
– Don’t ignore valuation—even market darlings must justify their price.
– Be cautious about AI hype; look for sustainable moats and recurring revenue.
Ready to ride the next trillion-dollar wave? Follow these six steps to prepare your portfolio:
- Track Visa and Walmart quarterly results and expansion strategies
- Balance holdings with both growth and defensive stocks
- Monitor P/E ratios and watch for signs of market overheating
- Stay informed on trade and tariff policy shifts
- Follow cross-border and e-commerce volume trends closely
- Review your allocation at least every quarter
The trillion-dollar club is no longer just for tech. Visa and Walmart are rewriting the rules—make sure you’re not left behind.