Crypto Exchanges: Unmasking the Hidden Jurisdictional Risks That Will Define 2025 & Beyond

19 May 2025
Crypto Exchanges: Unmasking the Hidden Jurisdictional Risks That Will Define 2025 & Beyond

Table of Contents

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Executive Summary: The Urgency of Jurisdictional Risk Intelligence in 2025

The landscape for crypto exchanges in 2025 is marked by intensifying regulatory scrutiny, cross-border enforcement actions, and rapidly evolving compliance expectations. As digital asset markets mature and attract mainstream participation, governments worldwide are enacting, revising, and enforcing regulations at an unprecedented pace. This escalation in regulatory activity exposes crypto exchanges to significant jurisdictional risk—a multidimensional threat encompassing legal uncertainty, operational disruptions, reputational damage, and financial penalties.

Events in the past year underscore the urgent need for sophisticated jurisdictional risk intelligence. In 2024, the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) came into effect, imposing new licensing, reporting, and consumer protection obligations on crypto service providers operating within and targeting EU residents. MiCA represents a comprehensive and enforceable regime, putting pressure on exchanges to maintain granular, real-time awareness of their users’ locations, business activities, and the regulatory status of each supported asset (European Securities and Markets Authority). Simultaneously, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have ramped up enforcement, targeting exchanges providing unregistered services or failing to implement robust know-your-customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) controls (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission).

Elsewhere, the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has tightened its registration regime and conducted high-profile enforcement actions against unregistered entities (Financial Conduct Authority). Singapore, Hong Kong, and Dubai are shaping competitive but demanding regulatory environments, requiring exchanges to demonstrate ongoing risk management and compliance capabilities (Monetary Authority of Singapore; Securities and Futures Commission; Dubai Financial Services Authority). Notably, several jurisdictions are implementing travel rule compliance and real-time transaction monitoring requirements, further raising the bar for operational vigilance.

Looking forward, the proliferation of local and extraterritorial regulations will intensify the compliance burden on global exchanges. Regulatory divergence—whereby countries adopt different, sometimes conflicting, approaches to digital asset oversight—will compound legal and operational complexity. In response, exchanges must embed jurisdictional risk intelligence into core systems and governance, leveraging technology to dynamically map regulatory change, assess entity exposure, and automate compliance workflows. Failure to do so risks not only fines and loss of market access but also irreparable reputational harm. The next few years will reward exchanges that invest proactively in jurisdictional risk intelligence as a strategic imperative, positioning them for resilient growth in a volatile regulatory environment.

Global Regulatory Shifts: New Compliance Frontiers for Crypto Exchanges

Jurisdictional risk intelligence has become a cornerstone for crypto exchanges operating in an increasingly fragmented regulatory landscape. As of 2025, global regulatory frameworks for digital assets are diverging rapidly, presenting both challenges and opportunities for exchanges that must navigate complex compliance requirements across multiple jurisdictions.

The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), which began phasing in during 2024, now serves as a benchmark for comprehensive crypto regulation, mandating strict licensing, capital requirements, and consumer protections for crypto service providers. Exchanges seeking access to the EU market must demonstrate robust compliance not only with MiCA, but also with the region’s anti-money laundering directives and data privacy standards (European Securities and Markets Authority). This regulatory clarity is prompting leading exchanges to enhance their jurisdictional risk frameworks, with many investing in automated tools for real-time monitoring of regulatory changes.

In contrast, the United States continues to experience regulatory uncertainty, with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) frequently asserting overlapping jurisdiction. The result is a patchwork of enforcement actions and guidance, driving exchanges to adopt conservative approaches and reroute certain operations offshore to mitigate legal exposure (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission). Simultaneously, some states—such as New York with its BitLicense regime—are tightening requirements, compelling exchanges to develop granular risk matrices tailored to each state’s rules.

In the Asia-Pacific region, Singapore and Hong Kong are emerging as regulatory havens due to their clear licensing pathways and proactive digital asset policies. The Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority have implemented licensing frameworks that emphasize anti-money laundering (AML), know-your-customer (KYC), and operational resilience. Exchanges seeking to expand in these markets are leveraging advanced jurisdictional risk intelligence platforms to track evolving regulations and to ensure continuous compliance.

Looking ahead, the globalization of crypto markets is expected to further amplify the importance of jurisdictional risk intelligence. As countries like the United Kingdom implement new financial promotions rules and countries such as Brazil and the United Arab Emirates progress toward comprehensive digital asset regulation, exchanges will need to maintain agile compliance strategies backed by real-time regulatory intelligence and cross-border legal expertise (Financial Conduct Authority). This trend will likely drive greater adoption of AI-powered compliance monitoring tools and collaborative data-sharing initiatives among industry players.

Emerging High-Risk Jurisdictions: Red Flags and Rapid Changes

The landscape of jurisdictional risk for crypto exchanges in 2025 is marked by rapid regulatory evolution and emerging high-risk geographies. As governments worldwide tighten oversight of digital asset activities, exchanges must closely monitor red flags signaling shifting risk levels. Recent months have seen both established financial jurisdictions and emerging markets enact, update, or enforce crypto regulations with significant implications for compliance, licensing, and cross-border operations.

Key red flags include sudden regulatory crackdowns, restrictive licensing frameworks, and abrupt policy reversals. In 2024, Monetary Authority of Singapore implemented enhanced consumer protection measures, restricting the promotion and facilitation of certain digital asset services, while also requiring stricter segregation of customer assets. Similarly, Financial Conduct Authority in the UK continued its campaign to shut down unregistered crypto ATMs and warned of severe penalties for non-compliant operators. These actions signal a broader trend: even historically crypto-friendly jurisdictions are reassessing their risk appetite and regulatory posture.

Conversely, countries such as Nigeria and India, once considered high-risk due to ambiguous or restrictive policies, have initiated steps toward clearer frameworks. Nevertheless, these environments remain volatile—Nigeria’s central bank recently lifted its ban on crypto transactions but introduced stringent anti-money laundering requirements, creating an uncertain compliance landscape for exchanges Central Bank of Nigeria.

  • Sanctions and Geopolitics: The ongoing use of economic sanctions against jurisdictions like Russia and North Korea continues to elevate risk for exchanges operating globally. The U.S. Department of the Treasury regularly updates its sanctions lists, targeting crypto wallets and exchanges facilitating illicit transactions.
  • AML Enforcement: The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) continues to identify non-compliant jurisdictions and urges member states to apply enhanced due diligence to exchanges transacting with entities in high-risk countries.

Looking ahead to the next few years, exchanges must anticipate further fragmentation of regulatory regimes alongside the emergence of new high-risk jurisdictions. The proliferation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and the expansion of travel rule enforcement—now being implemented by countries such as Japan and Switzerland—will require agile, real-time jurisdictional risk intelligence solutions. Proactive monitoring of regulatory updates, enforcement actions, and geopolitical developments will be crucial for compliance teams seeking to avoid inadvertent exposure and ensure sustainable global operations.

Market Forecast: Growth Trajectories, Risk Hotspots & Exchange Strategies to 2030

Jurisdictional risk intelligence is rapidly becoming a cornerstone of operational resilience and competitive advantage for crypto exchanges, particularly as global regulatory environments continue to fragment and evolve. Entering 2025, exchanges face unprecedented complexity in navigating a patchwork of legal frameworks, enforcement priorities, and jurisdiction-specific threats. Forward-looking forecasts suggest that the demand for sophisticated jurisdictional risk intelligence solutions will accelerate sharply through 2030, driven by regulatory tightening, institutional adoption, and cross-border compliance mandates.

Key growth trajectories are visible in regions prioritizing comprehensive digital asset frameworks. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), effective in 2024, is already influencing risk intelligence priorities, requiring exchanges to track not only EU-wide compliance but also the unique interpretations and enforcement practices of individual member states. Similarly, in Asia, jurisdictions like Singapore and Hong Kong are refining licensing regimes, while others, such as India, remain volatile, underscoring the necessity for real-time jurisdictional risk analytics (Binance).

The United States represents a significant risk hotspot due to its multi-agency regulatory approach and ongoing debates around the classification of digital assets. In 2024, several exchanges faced enforcement actions from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), prompting a surge in demand for tools that monitor shifts in policy statements and enforcement trends (Coinbase). Similar trends are emerging in Latin America and Africa, where regulatory clarity is lacking but adoption is high, increasing the importance of early warning systems for legislative changes and sanctions.

  • Growth Forecast: The global market for jurisdictional risk intelligence services for crypto exchanges is expected to grow at a double-digit CAGR through 2030, with leading exchanges investing in proprietary and third-party intelligence platforms to maintain licensing, banking relationships, and market access.
  • Risk Hotspots: The U.S., India, and certain African nations are likely to remain high-risk due to evolving or unpredictable regulatory actions. The EU and APAC regions, while more stable, will demand continuous monitoring due to rapidly changing requirements.
  • Exchange Strategies: Proactive integration of jurisdictional risk intelligence—via dedicated compliance teams, real-time analytics, and partnerships with local legal experts—is now standard among leading exchanges. Some, like Kraken, are publicly emphasizing transparency and adaptive compliance as part of their market differentiation.

Looking ahead, the ability to anticipate and adapt to jurisdictional risks will be a key determinant of exchange success, with continuous investment in risk intelligence infrastructure expected to define industry leaders by 2030.

Technology Solutions: AI, Blockchain Analytics, and Automated Risk Mapping

In 2025, crypto exchanges face growing complexity in managing jurisdictional risk, as global regulatory landscapes evolve and cross-border compliance expectations intensify. Technology solutions leveraging artificial intelligence (AI), advanced blockchain analytics, and automated risk mapping are central to this effort, enabling exchanges to adapt to rapid policy shifts and emerging threats.

AI-driven platforms are increasingly deployed to interpret and operationalize diverse regulatory requirements. These systems ingest regulatory updates from authorities worldwide, dynamically mapping rules onto exchange operations. For example, Chainalysis provides real-time risk scoring and transaction monitoring by analyzing blockchain data and identifying activity linked to sanctioned jurisdictions. Their tools integrate with compliance workflows, flagging transactions that may violate local or international requirements.

Blockchain analytics have become indispensable for tracing funds and understanding exposure to high-risk jurisdictions. As jurisdictions like the EU, U.S., and Singapore implement new travel rule standards and expand lists of restricted entities, exchanges rely on analytics to screen wallets and counterparties. CipherTrace, now part of MasterCard, offers tools to map transaction flows, segmenting risk based on jurisdictional origin and destination. This supports compliance teams in proactively identifying jurisdictional exposure and reporting suspicious activity in line with Financial Action Task Force (FATF) guidelines.

Automated risk mapping further enhances operational resilience. These systems continuously ingest regulatory feeds, sanctions lists, and enforcement actions, and visualize jurisdictional risk across an exchange’s user base and transaction network. Elliptic has introduced risk heatmaps and real-time jurisdictional exposure dashboards, allowing exchanges to rapidly adjust onboarding, withdrawals, or trading permissions in response to new regulatory developments.

Looking ahead, these technology solutions are expected to become more sophisticated, incorporating machine learning models that can predict regulatory changes and geopolitical risks. With the anticipated proliferation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and additional regulatory initiatives in 2025 and beyond, exchanges will need to maintain agile, automated systems to monitor evolving jurisdictional risk in real time. Collaboration between exchanges, analytics providers, and regulatory bodies is likely to deepen, with shared risk intelligence platforms enabling faster, more coordinated responses to jurisdictional threats.

In summary, as the crypto industry enters a new era of compliance and risk management, AI, blockchain analytics, and automation will remain at the core of effective jurisdictional risk intelligence for exchanges operating across borders.

Case Studies: How Leading Exchanges Are Responding to Jurisdictional Uncertainty

Jurisdictional risk intelligence has become a cornerstone of operational strategy for leading crypto exchanges, particularly as regulatory ambiguity shows no signs of abating in 2025. The ability to anticipate, interpret, and react to rapid shifts in global policy remains crucial as governments and regulatory bodies across the world adopt diverse stances—from proactive licensing regimes to outright bans—on digital assets.

A notable example is Binance, which has faced repeated regulatory scrutiny in several jurisdictions over the past few years. In response, Binance has significantly expanded its compliance and risk intelligence teams, instituted country-specific onboarding protocols, and implemented robust Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) systems tailored to individual regulatory environments. In 2024, Binance withdrew from the Canadian market citing regulatory restrictions, while concurrently seeking a comprehensive license in France. These decisions reflect a more agile, intelligence-led approach to jurisdictional risk management.

Similarly, Coinbase has prioritized proactive engagement with regulators, exemplified by its registration as a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) in multiple European Union countries and its lobbying efforts in the United States for comprehensive federal regulation. As of early 2025, Coinbase has expanded its footprint in Asia-Pacific, leveraging its jurisdictional risk intelligence frameworks to navigate varying degrees of regulatory openness, such as Singapore’s progressive licensing regime and Japan’s stringent consumer protection requirements.

Regional exchanges are also deploying sophisticated intelligence capabilities. For instance, Upbit, South Korea’s leading exchange, has built real-time monitoring systems to track regulatory updates and enforcement trends across Asia. This enables rapid operational adjustments, such as temporarily suspending new product launches in uncertain jurisdictions or enhancing transaction monitoring in response to new guidance from regulatory authorities.

  • Many exchanges are leveraging AI-based risk modeling to predict and quantify the impact of potential regulatory changes, allowing for preemptive compliance measures.
  • There is a growing trend of establishing dedicated “regulatory watch” teams tasked with scenario analysis and stakeholder mapping for high-risk jurisdictions.
  • Collaboration with industry bodies, such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), is increasingly common as exchanges seek to align with global standards and preempt enforcement actions.

Looking ahead, exchanges that invest in dynamic jurisdictional risk intelligence—integrating real-time data feeds, government policy trackers, and advanced analytics—will be best positioned to maintain global operations and client trust. As new regulations are anticipated in the U.S., EU, and major Asian markets through 2026, agility and intelligence will remain decisive competitive advantages in the crypto exchange sector.

AML/KYC Evolution: Enhanced Due Diligence in a Patchwork Regulatory Landscape

As the global regulatory landscape for crypto assets continues to evolve through 2025, jurisdictional risk intelligence has become a cornerstone of effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) frameworks for crypto exchanges. The uneven adoption of crypto regulations, coupled with varying levels of enforcement, has created a complex patchwork in which exchanges must continually assess the risks associated with onboarding users and assets from different jurisdictions.

Recent years have seen an increase in regulatory scrutiny across key markets. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), which begins phased implementation throughout 2024 and 2025, sets harmonized standards for crypto service providers across EU member states, including stringent AML and KYC obligations. Exchanges operating or servicing customers in Europe are required to deploy enhanced due diligence and risk-assessment tools to identify and mitigate exposure to sanctioned jurisdictions or high-risk entities, as outlined by European Securities and Markets Authority.

In the United States, enforcement actions by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network have highlighted the necessity for exchanges to implement robust risk intelligence systems capable of monitoring transactions and counterparties across state and federal boundaries. The recent focus on compliance failures among major exchanges underscores the importance of jurisdictional awareness in preventing illicit activity and maintaining access to banking and fiat payment rails.

Similarly, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and other Asian regulators have intensified their oversight, requiring exchanges to demonstrate proactive risk management suited to cross-border flows and diverse user bases. The risk of inadvertently facilitating transactions linked to sanctioned entities, or failing to identify politically exposed persons (PEPs), is heightened by the rapid proliferation of new tokens and decentralized finance (DeFi) models.

To address these challenges, leading exchanges are increasingly integrating real-time jurisdictional risk intelligence solutions. These systems aggregate data from global watchlists, sanctions databases, and regulatory developments, providing automated alerts and actionable insights for compliance teams. The adoption of such technologies is expected to accelerate through 2025, as regulatory agencies strengthen enforcement and as exchanges seek to avoid reputational damage and financial penalties.

Looking ahead, jurisdictional risk intelligence will remain pivotal as more countries introduce or revise their crypto-specific AML requirements. Exchanges able to dynamically adjust to this regulatory mosaic—by leveraging AI-powered compliance tools and maintaining transparent relationships with regulators—will be best positioned to grow sustainably in the coming years.

Future-Proofing Crypto Operations: Proactive Risk Intelligence Frameworks

As crypto exchanges expand globally, jurisdictional risk intelligence has become a cornerstone of future-proof operational frameworks. In 2025, the regulatory landscape remains highly fragmented and dynamic, with governments enacting divergent approaches to digital assets. Exchanges must proactively map these shifting legal terrains to safeguard compliance, consumer trust, and business continuity.

Key recent events underscore the need for robust jurisdictional risk intelligence. In April 2024, the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) entered into force, introducing harmonized licensing, capital requirements, and consumer safeguards across the bloc. Exchanges seeking EU market access must now implement real-time monitoring of jurisdictional developments and demonstrate compliance with MiCA’s provisions, including anti-money laundering (AML) and investor protection protocols (European Securities and Markets Authority). Simultaneously, the United States continues a patchwork approach, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Financial Industry Regulatory Authority intensifying enforcement actions while legislative clarity remains in flux.

In Asia-Pacific, regulatory divergence persists. Hong Kong launched its new licensing regime for virtual asset trading platforms in June 2024, mandating strict segregation of client assets and comprehensive risk management systems (Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong). Meanwhile, Singapore’s Monetary Authority of Singapore continues to refine its Payment Services Act, focusing on operational resilience and cross-border risk controls. These moves illustrate the necessity for real-time jurisdictional intelligence to adapt operational, compliance, and risk management processes.

Advanced jurisdictional risk intelligence leverages data aggregation, AI-driven legal monitoring, and scenario planning to anticipate adverse actions—such as sudden bans, license withdrawals, or sanctions. Leading exchanges are investing in in-house compliance technology and forming alliances with blockchain analytics providers to automate the identification and escalation of jurisdiction-specific risks. For instance, exchanges deploying granular geofencing and transaction screening are better positioned to comply with evolving sanctions or blacklists, as witnessed in recent guidance by the Financial Action Task Force.

Looking ahead, jurisdictional risk intelligence will be further tested by geopolitical tensions, cross-border enforcement, and the emergence of digital asset-specific treaties. Crypto exchanges that embed dynamic, data-driven risk frameworks into their core operations will be best placed to navigate complex regulatory changes, maintain global market access, and preserve user trust in an era of heightened scrutiny.

Partnerships, Industry Bodies & Best Practices (e.g. CryptoUK.org, GlobalDigitalFinance.org)

Jurisdictional risk intelligence is becoming a critical function for crypto exchanges as they navigate an increasingly complex global regulatory landscape. In 2025 and the years ahead, partnerships with industry bodies and adherence to best practices are central to how exchanges manage jurisdictional risks, ensuring compliance and fostering trust with users and regulators alike.

Leading industry groups such as CryptoUK and Global Digital Finance (GDF) have emerged as hubs for sharing intelligence, setting standards, and advocating for pragmatic regulation. CryptoUK, for instance, actively collaborates with UK policymakers and regulators to shape guidance on anti-money laundering (AML), know-your-customer (KYC), and operational resilience. Its membership includes prominent exchanges and service providers who utilize its working groups to keep abreast of legislative updates and cross-border regulatory shifts, which is essential for jurisdictional risk mapping.

Similarly, GDF brings together a global coalition of digital asset platforms, legal experts, and technology providers to establish codes of conduct and compliance frameworks. In 2025, GDF’s policy initiatives focus on harmonizing regulatory standards across jurisdictions, helping exchanges anticipate and adapt to changes such as the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) and the evolving regulatory regimes in Asia-Pacific and North America. GDF’s open working groups and regulatory roundtables provide a venue for sharing best practices and real-time intelligence on jurisdictional developments.

Exchanges are increasingly formalizing partnerships with organizations like Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and participating in cross-industry alliances to enhance their risk intelligence capabilities. FATF’s ongoing updates to its virtual asset guidelines, including Travel Rule implementation and enhanced due diligence, require exchanges to monitor and adjust their compliance strategies dynamically.

Best practices now involve not only monitoring legal changes but also implementing robust risk assessment protocols and leveraging shared intelligence networks. Exchanges are adopting frameworks such as GDF’s Code of Conduct and CryptoUK’s compliance principles as benchmarks for internal policies. Many are also investing in RegTech solutions and participating in industry-led threat intelligence sharing to proactively identify and mitigate emerging jurisdictional risks.

Looking forward, the trend is toward deeper collaboration between exchanges, industry bodies, and regulators. As regulatory fragmentation and enforcement actions increase, engagement with recognized organizations will remain essential for staying ahead of jurisdictional risks and building resilient, globally-compliant crypto businesses.

Outlook 2025–2030: The New Normal for Jurisdictional Risk in Crypto Exchanges

As the global regulatory environment for digital assets continues to evolve rapidly, jurisdictional risk intelligence is becoming an essential pillar of operational strategy for crypto exchanges heading into 2025 and beyond. With the increasing complexity of compliance regimes, crypto exchanges must monitor, interpret, and adapt to a diverse array of jurisdictional requirements to avoid enforcement actions, reputational harm, and market exclusion.

By 2025, the implementation of the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, which came into effect in 2024, is serving as a model for robust licensing, consumer protection, and anti-money laundering (AML) standards within the region. Exchanges are required to obtain authorization and adhere to strict reporting and operational protocols, including real-time monitoring of jurisdiction-specific risks, to maintain market access within the European Economic Area (European Securities and Markets Authority).

In the United States, the regulatory landscape remains fragmented across federal and state agencies, resulting in a patchwork of requirements. The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are continuing to increase scrutiny of crypto exchanges, emphasizing robust know-your-customer (KYC) controls and cross-border transaction monitoring (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network). As a result, leading exchanges are investing in advanced jurisdictional risk intelligence tools to dynamically assess exposure and compliance obligations on a state-by-state basis.

In Asia-Pacific, jurisdictions such as Singapore and Hong Kong have introduced comprehensive licensing frameworks, while China maintains a strict prohibition on crypto trading (Monetary Authority of Singapore). This divergent policy landscape necessitates granular risk analysis for exchanges operating across borders, including geopolitical evaluation and ongoing monitoring of regulatory shifts.

Looking towards 2030, the normalization of jurisdictional risk intelligence is anticipated to transform how exchanges operate. Technologies such as artificial intelligence and real-time blockchain analytics will be increasingly integrated to automate compliance and offer predictive insights on jurisdictional developments. Global industry bodies, including the Financial Action Task Force, continue to drive harmonization efforts, but exchanges must remain vigilant to local nuances and emerging risks.

Ultimately, the period from 2025 to 2030 will see jurisdictional risk intelligence shift from a compliance add-on to a core competitive differentiator for crypto exchanges, underpinning secure, scalable, and sustainable operations in a highly dynamic market landscape.

Sources & References

Ángel Hernández

Ángel Hernández is a distinguished author and thought leader in the fields of new technologies and fintech. He holds a Master’s degree in Financial Engineering from Stanford University, where he developed a profound understanding of the intersections between finance and cutting-edge technology. With over a decade of industry experience, Ángel has served as a senior analyst at Nexsys Financial, a company renowned for its innovative solutions in digital banking and financial services. His insights into emerging trends and their implications for the finance sector have made him a sought-after speaker at international conferences. Through his writing, Ángel aims to demystify complex technological concepts, empowering readers to navigate the rapidly evolving landscape of fintech with confidence and clarity.

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